By Jason Alexander | Political Correspondent, Sentinel Research Group
In South Central Windward, all eyes are on what has become one of the most tightly contested races of the election. Two lawyers face off, both deeply embedded in the political and community fabric of the constituency. Saboto Caesar, the incumbent and three-time winner under the Unity Labour Party banner, is being challenged once again by the New Democratic Party’s Israel Bruce in what is now his second attempt to wrest the seat.
Caesar’s record in the constituency is well established. He first secured the seat in 2010, and in the last two elections—2015 and 2020—he emerged victorious. In 2020, he defeated Bruce 2,339 to 2,100, a margin of 239 votes. But the numbers this time around are showing a much closer race.
Polling conducted by the Sentinel Research Group across key communities in South Central Windward reveals just how close the contest has become.
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Community-Level Polling – South Central Windward (April 2025)
Community Saboto Caesar (ULP) Israel Bruce (NDP) Undecided
Greggs 48% 54% 4%
Lauders 49% 47% 4%
New Grounds 50% 48% 2%
Diamond Village 52% 43% 2%
Mt. Grenan 47% 49% 4%
Sans Souci 49% 49% 2%
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The takeaway is unmistakable. The race is deadlocked. Two of the six communities are exact ties. In the others, the lead shifts by just one or two points. Neither candidate has opened a meaningful gap. Both retain strong support. Both have vulnerabilities.
South Central Windward is traditionally an agricultural constituency. But like elsewhere in the country, agriculture has declined. Many farmers have left the land, citing lack of support, poor prices, and a sense that the government has shifted its focus to tourism. As Minister of Agriculture, Caesar has absorbed much of the criticism. While many accept that the challenges facing agriculture are broader than the actions of one ministry, Caesar has had to answer for them directly.
Yet despite this, Caesar remains a formidable political figure. He is energetic, outspoken, and charismatic. Among ULP supporters, he is widely regarded as a future leader of the party—more so than Camillo Gonsalves. That perception gives him added stature on the campaign trail and has helped energize his base.
Bruce, meanwhile, has remained consistent and highly visible. His community involvement, particularly in sports and youth engagement, is well known. His presence has been steady. But some constituents express concern that Bruce focuses too heavily on complaints and criticisms. They understand the limitations of being in opposition, but they are looking for more solutions, more vision, and more clarity about how to move the constituency forward.
This is not a race between a veteran and a newcomer. Both men are seasoned. Both are respected. Both have deep ties to the community.
And right now, the race is balanced on a knife’s edge. The outcome will likely be decided not by one dramatic issue, but by turnout, ground game, and who better convinces voters that they are ready to meet the moment.
South Central Windward is not leaning in either direction. It is truly up for grabs.
And in politics, that is when things are most alive.
Sentinel Research Group
