Sentinel Poll: NDP Surges as ULP\u2019s Red Wall Crumbles
By Jason Alexander | The Sentinel Political Desk
27th November 2025
\u201cThe momentum for change is real.
The NDP\u2019s base is stronger than ever.
The ULP\u2019s once-solid red wall now shows deep cracks.\u201d
With general elections set for 27 November, the latest Sentinel Poll identifies seven constituencies safely held by the New Democratic Party (NDP) and three firmly held by the Unity Labour Party (ULP).
According to the data, the NDP\u2019s safe seven are Northern Grenadines, Southern Grenadines, East Kingstown, Central Kingstown, West Kingstown, South Leeward and North Leeward.
These seats are considered virtually impossible to overturn.
The ULP\u2019s safe three are North Central Windward, Marriaqua and West St George, where incumbents appear solidly placed to retain their seats.
All other constituencies are either leaning, competitive or too close to call, setting the stage for one of the tightest and most consequential elections in a generation.
The Yellow Wall: Kingstown\u2019s Fortress of Continuity
For decades the East, Central and West Kingstown constituencies have formed the NDP\u2019s enduring base, a Yellow Wall that has never yielded to the ULP.
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0East Kingstown, held by the NDP since 1984, has never once changed hands.
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Central Kingstown has remained with the NDP since 2010 under the strong stewardship of St Clair Leacock.
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0West Kingstown, represented by Daniel Cummings, has been equally unshakeable since 2010.
Together they anchor the NDP\u2019s strength in the capital, a wall built on credibility, consistency and connection with ordinary Vincentians.
The Wider Strongholds
Beyond Kingstown, the NDP maintains secure leads in Northern and Southern Grenadines, South Leeward and now North Leeward.
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Dr Godwin Friday and Terence Ollivierre remain untouchable in the Grenadines.
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Nigel \u201cNature\u201d Stevenson continues to dominate South Leeward, with polling showing another decisive win.
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Dr Kishore Shallow, in North Leeward, has transformed the race there into a landslide.
These constituencies complete the NDP\u2019s seven-seat safe zone, the foundation upon which the party is building towards government.
Central Leeward: On Shaky Ground
The contest in Central Leeward remains close.
Orando Brewster of the ULP, who won by more than 500 votes in 2020, is slightly ahead in the latest polls, although his lead has narrowed considerably.
NDP challenger Conroy Huggins has made tremendous inroads. Charismatic, grounded and eloquent, he is described by residents as \u201chonest, relatable and real.\u201d
Brewster\u2019s once-comfortable margin now rests on shaky ground, with a growing number of undecided voters and visible fatigue among his traditional base.
North Leeward: Safely NDP
In North Leeward, the polls show the NDP\u2019s Dr Kishore Shallow holding a commanding and now unassailable advantage over ULP incumbent Carlos James, the former Minister of Tourism.
James, who scraped through in 2020 by a single vote after NDP candidate Patel Matthews conceded, has seen his support collapse amid unemployment and frustration.
Dr Shallow, known nationally as the President of Cricket West Indies, has emerged as one of the most promising young leaders in Vincentian public life.
He is regarded as \u201cone of those young Vincentians widely seen as a future national leader.\u201d
Based on the latest data, North Leeward is now firmly in the NDP column.
East and West St George: Two Different Stories
West St George
ULP incumbent Curtis King, respected educator and former Minister of Education, is on course to retain his seat comfortably.
His challenger, Kischaka Cupid, accountant, management specialist and cricket manager, has made visible inroads and earned community respect, but the polling indicates that West St George is safely ULP.
East St George
A neck-and-neck race.
Laverne Gibson-Velox (NDP) has sharpened her outreach and drawn level with Camillo Gonsalves (ULP), the Prime Minister\u2019s son.
A seat once considered unshakeable now appears too close to call.
The Windward Belt: Shifting Ground
South Windward
In South Windward, Andrew John (NDP) is leading slightly, according to the latest Sentinel polling.
A community activist and veteran educator who has taught and lived across the constituency for decades, John is a familiar name in every household.
Observers believe his deep community ties have contributed to his rise since being announced as the NDP candidate.
However, this race remains close and could go either way depending on which campaign works harder over the next four weeks.
The ULP\u2019s newcomer Darren John still commands strong support in several villages, and both sides are expected to intensify their ground operations.
South Central Windward
Two lawyers face off: Israel Bruce (NDP) versus Saboto Caesar (ULP).
Bruce, a respected criminal attorney with deep community roots, has closed the gap considerably.
Caesar\u2019s long tenure as Minister of Agriculture has tied him to widespread dissatisfaction among farmers, who cite years of missed opportunities.
North Central Windward
Still safely red.
Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves, seeking a historic sixth term, remains dominant in his home constituency.
Challenger Chieftain Neptune, energetic and charismatic, has excited young voters but is expected to fall short this cycle.
This seat remains safely ULP.
North Windward
A genuine toss-up.
Shevorn John (NDP) leads narrowly over Grace Walters (ULP).
John\u2019s warmth and credibility resonate deeply, while Walters\u2019s steadily improving performances keep her competitive.
Observers describe it as \u201ca photo finish in the making.\u201d
Marriaqua: Safely ULP
In Marriaqua, the NDP\u2019s Philip Jackson, a scientist known for his intelligence, innovation and accessibility, is challenging ULP incumbent St Clair \u201cJimmy\u201d Prince.
Prince, a two-term MP, remains well-liked and is favoured to win comfortably.
At this stage, Marriaqua is considered safely ULP, although national trends could still influence the final outcome.
The Big Picture
The Sentinel Poll finds the NDP leading in a majority of constituencies, with its Yellow Wall in Kingstown unbroken and its reach expanding across the Leeward and Windward belts.
The ULP still enjoys strong organisational capacity and financial resources, a party long known for its strategic campaigning and generosity during election season.
Whether that will be enough to blunt the NDP\u2019s momentum remains to be seen.
For now, the electorate\u2019s appetite for change is palpable, and both parties are racing against time to persuade an increasingly restless nation.
Jason Alexander \u2014 The Sentinel Political Desk
On the ground, constituency by constituency, tracking the pulse of a nation ready to decide its future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sentinel Poll: NDP Surges as ULP\u2019s Red Wall Crumbles By Jason Alexander | The Sentinel Political Desk27th November 2025 \u201cThe momentum for change is real.The NDP\u2019s base is stronger than ever.The ULP\u2019s once-solid red wall now shows deep cracks.\u201d With general elections set for 27 November, the latest Sentinel Poll identifies seven constituencies safely held<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":44539,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mainstory"],"yoast_head":"\n